Misery Index


Last week at our Market Forecast events, Chief Economist Matthew Gardner shared, among many stats, his famous “Misery Index.”

A valuable statistic with a funny title.

The Misery Index simply measures inflation plus unemployment.

It’s an effective way to look at our Nation’s economy.

Today’s Index sits just below 6%. Back in October 2011, it was close to 13%.

The lowest it has been in the last 7 years is October 2015 when it was near 5%.

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If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us.

We would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on March 1, 2019 at 4:23 pm
Philip Cooper | Category: Fun facts, Windermere | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

FUNdamentals

 

In times of change (like now), it’s valuable to look at the fundamentals of our market.

Let’s have some fun with fundamentals…

1.  Our economy is healthy – since 1990, the unemployment rate in Colorado has never been higher than the U.S. unemployment rate.  Ever.  Unemployment in Colorado sits at 2.7% today while the rate across the U.S. is 4.0%.

2.  People keep moving here – since 2005 our population has grown by just over a million people which is roughly 77,000 per year (about the size of Mile High Stadium).

3.  Our real estate outperforms other places – according the Federal Housing Finance Authority, Colorado is the #1 state for home price appreciation since 1990.

Posted on November 14, 2018 at 3:39 pm
Philip Cooper | Category: For Buyers & Sellers, Market News | Tagged , , , , , , ,

FUNdamentals

 

In times of change (like now), it’s valuable to look at the fundamentals of our market.

Let’s have some fun with fundamentals…

1.  Our economy is healthy – since 1990, the unemployment rate in Colorado has never been higher than the U.S. unemployment rate.  Ever.  Unemployment in Colorado sits at 2.7% today while the rate across the U.S. is 4.0%.

2.  People keep moving here – since 2005 our population has grown by just over a million people which is roughly 77,000 per year (about the size of Mile High Stadium).

3.  Our real estate outperforms other places – according the Federal Housing Finance Authority, Colorado is the #1 state for home price appreciation since 1990.

Posted on October 30, 2018 at 2:20 am
Philip Cooper | Category: For Buyers & Sellers, Fun facts, Market News | Tagged , , , , , , ,

5 reasons Rising Interest Rates Won’t Wreck the Housing Market

Interest rates have been trending higher since the fall of 2017, and I fully expect they will continue in that direction – albeit relatively slowly – as we move through the balance of the year and into 2019. So what does this mean for the US housing market?

It might come as a surprise to learn that I really don’t think rising interest rates will have a major impact on the housing market. Here is my reasoning:

1. First Time Home Buyers 

As interest rates rise, I expect more buyers to get off the fence and into the market; specifically, first time buyers who, according to Freddie Mac, made up nearly half of new mortgages in the first quarter of this year. First-time buyers are critical to the overall health of the housing market because of the subsequent chain reaction of sales that result so this is actually a positive outcome of rising rates.

2. Easing Credit Standards

Rising interest rates may actually push some lenders to modestly ease credit standards. I know this statement will cause some people to think that easing credit will immediately send us back to the days of sub-prime lending and housing bubbles, but I don’t see this happening. Even a very modest easing of credit will allow for more than one million new home buyers to qualify for a mortgage.

3. Low Unemployment 

We stand today in a country with very low unemployment (currently 4.0% and likely to get close to 3.5% by year’s end). Low unemployment rates encourage employers to raise wages to keep existing talent, as well as to recruit new talent. Wage growth can, to a degree, offset increasing interest rates because, as wages rise, buyers can afford higher mortgage payments.

4. Supply

There is a clear relationship between housing supply, home prices, and interest rates. We’re already seeing a shift in inventory levels with more homes coming on the market, and I fully expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. This increase in supply is, in part, a result of homeowners looking to cash in on their home’s appreciation before interest rates rise too far. This, on its own, will help ease the growth of home prices and offset rising interest rates. Furthermore, if we start to see more new construction activity at the lower end of the market, this too will help.

National versus Local

Up until this point, I’ve looked at how rising interest rates might impact the housing market on a national level, but as we all know, real estate is local, and different markets react to shifts in different ways. For example, rising interest rates will be felt more in expensive housing markets, such as San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, and Orange County, but I expect to see less impact in areas like Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburg, and Detroit, where buyers spend a lower percentage of their incomes on housing. The exception to this would be if interest rates continue to rise for a prolonged period; in that case, we might see demand start to taper off, especially in the less expensive housing markets where buyers are more price sensitive.

For more than seven years, home buyers and real estate professionals alike have grown very accustomed to historically low interest rates. We always knew the time would come when they would begin to rise again, but that doesn’t mean the outlook for housing is doom and gloom. On the contrary, I believe rising interest rates will help bring us closer to a more balanced real estate market, something that is sorely needed in many markets across the country.

Posted on October 6, 2018 at 7:29 am
Philip Cooper | Category: Economy | Tagged , , , ,

How Will the Real Estate Market Respond to Rising Interest Rates?

Posted on September 13, 2018 at 6:48 pm
Philip Cooper | Category: Economy | Tagged , ,

How Will the Real Estate Market Respond to Rising Interest Rates?

Let Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner walk you through what to expect from the real estate market amidst rising interest rates.​

Posted on August 28, 2018 at 7:23 am
Philip Cooper | Category: Economy | Tagged , ,